Related Reading:
Hampton Angle L.L.C.
 Final 2012 Electoral College Projection
11/6/12
Weekly Notes:
47.77% Electoral College
52.23% Electoral College
Obama/Biden- 257


Romney/Ryan- 281
  • Early voting numbers show that Obama’s margin in Ohio from 2008 has largely been erased. If the Romney
    campaign can get their voters to the polls today, they have a decent chance of winning the state (despite
    polling numbers to the contrary).  

  • Some conservatives are seriously talking about Romney winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and/or
    Minnesota. It is unlikely that he wins any of these states, but if he does, Pennsylvania is the most realistic.

  • Romney has to win Virginia to have a chance. He has to win all the Southern states to be in contention. If
    Virginia goes for Obama, the election is over.

  • How does Romney look as returns come in from New Hampshire? Also, what do the returns look like from
    Pennsylvania? These are going to be the two early signs tonight. If Romney wins New Hampshire and is
    within five percentage points in Pennsylvania then he has a really good chance to win the election. Ohio
    is almost always about five percentage points friendlier to the GOP than Pennsylvania. Despite all the
    negative ads attacking Romney in Ohio that rule probably holds true for this election as well.
MA-11
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-14
MD-10
DE-3
DC-3